Southern California Earthquake

I missed the earthquake, AGAIN!  Instead of sitting at home in our computer chairs, like we normally are on a Tuesday morning, we were out running errands, and pointlessly debating whether or not to bring checked bags with us on our trip.  I have not spoken to anyone yet in my area that felt the quake, but I did speak to an associate who works at MySpace in LA, who gave me this gripping first-hand account, “Our whole building shook for like 15 secs…Everyone was just looking at everyone else… I’m pretty sure if one person would’ve panicked it would’ve been chaos… Everyone wanted to run, but didn’t feel like they should…No one at our building [was hurt]“.

The earthquake (do people name earthquakes like hurricanes??) hit the greater Los Angeles area late this morning, measuring 5.4 in magnitude.  As I was reading about the quake, I found it interesting to note that the 5.4 magnitude is not actually based on the Richter Scale.  It turns out that the Richter Scale is actually an antiquated method for measuring earthquake magnitude, and now earthquakes are recorded according to their moment magnitude, which is a much better indicator of strength. The quake from this morning, a 5.4, can be considered a moderate earthquake which may have caused slight structural damage.

There could be some aftershocks associated with this quake, although aftershocks become less likely as more time passes from the mainshock, and they are a lot less likely the further you travel from the center of where the quake happened.  It looks like I am traveling back east at the right time, as there is, “about a 5-10% probability that one of the aftershocks of this earthquake will be larger than this earthquake (a magnitude 5.4), in which case one could call this earthquake a foreshock.”  I will have to teach the dogs some earthquake safety and encourage them to take naps under our desks while we are gone!

According to Dr. Morgan Page, Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasedena, “The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake occurring in the Los Angeles in the next 30 years is 97%. So it’s almost certain. The probabilities get smaller for even larger earthquakes.
For a magnitude 7 or greater, the probability over 30 years is 82%. For magnitude 7.5 or greater, it’s 37%. For 8 or greater, it’s 3%.”  For more information on the imminent earthquake disaster in California, feel free to visit this site to get a healthy dose of non-terrorist related fear – Forecasting California’s Earthquakes—What Can We Expect in the Next 30 Years?

As my informant mentioned in his account of the quake, there have been no reported injuries related to the quake.  Media reports said the quake was felt as far south as San Diego and as far east as Las Vegas, Nevada.

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